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The Climate Prediction Center issued a La Nina watch this month, predicting the climate phenomenon is likely to develop in late fall or early winter. La Nina favors drier, warmer winters in the southern U.S and wetter, cooler conditions in the northern U.S.
Other factors that could play a role in winter weather:
- The Arctic Oscillation, which influences the number of arctic air masses that penetrate into the South and create nor'easters on the East Coast
- The Madden-Julian Oscillation, which can affect the number of heavy rain events in the Pacific Northwest
This seasonal outlook does not project where and when snowstorms may hit or provide total seasonal snowfall accumulations. Snow forecasts are dependent upon the strength and track of winter storms, which are generally not predictable more than a week in advance.
However, La Nina winters tend to favor above average snowfall around the Great Lakes and in the northern Rockies and below average snowfall in the mid-Atlantic.
On Tuesday, October 18th, Chief Meteorologist Eric Elwell and the Storm Center 7 weather team released their winter weather outlook for the Miami Valley. Elwell said that warmer waters of the Great Lakes could also lead to increased lake-effect snow, especially early in the season.
“We may have somewhat of a delayed start to real winter weather,” Elwell said, “but once it gets going, it probably won’t take us long to realize it is a worse winter than last year."
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